Top 10% share of US consumer spending

Why this matters

This is the mechanism by which the K-shape hides. When the top 10% of earners account for roughly half of total US consumer spending, the aggregate retail-sales print stops being a statement about the median household. Headline consumer-spending resilience can co-exist with acute fragility at the median, and the macro data does not catch it because the macro data is volume-weighted toward the top decile. The downstream consequence is that policy responses calibrated to "the consumer" are calibrated to a population that no longer drives the consumption series.

Who watches this

• Mark Zandi (Moody's Analytics) — produces the data series; the canonical source
• Liz Ann Sonders (Charles Schwab) — references the K-shape mechanism in monthly market commentary
• Joseph Politano (Apricitas Economics) — translates the underlying microdata for general audiences
• Heather Long (WaPo / WSJ) — long-running coverage of the K-shape from the consumption-side
• Larry Mishel (EPI) — places the spending-share data inside the broader wage-and-distribution picture

Recent history

The top-10% spending share rose from roughly 35% pre-pandemic to approximately 50% by 2025. The 2022–24 inflation cycle disproportionately compressed bottom-quintile real spending while top-decile spending continued to grow.

What would change my read

A narrowing of the spending share — say, sustained real wage growth at the bottom two quintiles outpacing the top — would mean aggregate consumption data starts reading the median household again. This is one of the most direct counterweight conditions: if the K-shape compresses, several other diagnosis-side signals lose force.